The next president will be the first since Ronald Reagan to win a second term in office without a Democratic challenger, according to a new poll from Public Policy Polling.
Public Policy Pollings’ newest survey of likely voters suggests that Trump’s current odds of winning the presidency are significantly higher than they were in January and that he could win another term without a major Democratic challenger.
The new survey found that 51 percent of likely Democratic voters said they would be less likely to vote for Trump in 2020 than they would if a Democrat ran for president, compared to just 31 percent of Republicans who said the same.
Public policy pollsters found that if Trump were to lose the 2020 election, his margin of victory would shrink by 6 percentage points to 4 percentage points.
This means that Trump would have to win 60 percent of the remaining popular vote to win reelection.
Democrats have already called for a special prosecutor to investigate possible Trump campaign collusion with Russia, including a probe into whether Trump associates colluded with Moscow to help Trump win the presidency.
PublicPolicy Pollings conducted its latest poll in early February and found that 56 percent of respondents said they thought the president was “totally honest” and 57 percent said he was “completely truthful” in his responses to questions about the Russia investigation.
The numbers dropped to 41 percent and 33 percent, respectively, among Republicans, and 35 percent among independents.
A similar poll conducted in January found that 52 percent of Americans agreed with the statement that Trump “does not respect the rule of law,” while 46 percent disagreed.
The public also said that Trump is “not a leader” by a margin of 53 percent to 32 percent.
Publicpolicy Pollings is one of several polling firms that has also released new polls this week, including the results of a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, which found that the president would win reelection if he ran against Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., by 8 points, 45 percent to 41.
The survey also found that Trump and McCaskills would have similar unfavorable ratings if the Democratic candidate ran against Trump.
Public opinion has been in a state of flux since the end of the 2016 election, as Republicans, who control the Senate, have sought to delay and potentially derail a vote on impeachment, while Democrats have sought the vote to move forward with the investigation into possible collusion between Trump’s campaign and Russia.
The latest poll was conducted in early January and has a margin that is significantly higher when compared to a Quinnipac poll released earlier in January.
Public policies polling has also been in high demand in recent weeks, with President Trump taking a break from Twitter and appearing at the White House to deliver remarks to reporters, according of a White House official.
Public polling is a critical tool in any presidential campaign, as the public is far more likely to respond positively to a candidate’s answers than negatively.
The most recent polls, however, can often have a bias toward a candidate who is favored to win the election, so it’s important to take the survey results with a grain of salt.
